◀ Home

Learn

Longer explanations of the ideas behind Guess Macro questions, written for people who follow market news. Each one links to the glossary entries and past puzzles it draws on.

• How to read a Fed statement

  What each part of an FOMC statement tells you, how to compare it with the previous one, and where the market-moving information usually sits.

• What goodwill is, and what a write-down tells you

  How goodwill is calculated in an acquisition, why US public companies test it for impairment instead of amortizing it, and what a write-down tells investors.

• Why liquidity dries up when you need it most

  Why assets that trade easily in calm markets can become hard to sell in a panic, and how market liquidity and funding liquidity feed each other.

• What happens to collateral after you pledge it

  What happens to an asset after you pledge it as collateral: haircuts, hypothecation, rehypothecation, and how collateral chains carry stress between firms.

• How a US government shutdown works

  Which federal spending stops when appropriations lapse, who keeps working, and why the delayed economic statistics matter more to markets than the shutdown itself.

• How to read an earnings report

  What moves a stock on results day, when adjusted earnings mislead, and the three comparisons in the statements that catch most problems.

• What the yield curve is, and what it is not telling you

  What each end of the yield curve reflects, what an inversion means and how long the lag runs, and why the same steepening can signal optimism or alarm.

• How inflation gets measured, and why the numbers disagree

  CPI against PCE, headline against core, the lag built into shelter costs, and why the published rate can differ from the inflation you feel.